(Mis)forecasting Solar PV: Why accurately forecasting solar PV matters
Third publication of the Solar PV Brain Trust
This short paper discusses the repeated failings of leading forecasting agencies to accurately forecast the growth of solar PV, and what can be done to improve the global dialogue on the future of solar power. With solar PV now ranking as the lowest-cost source of new energy supply worldwide, the share of solar PV assumed in future energy scenarios has a significant impact on the overall costs of the energy transition, and ultimately, on public support. Significantly, as low-cost storage and power-to‑X spreads, there are fewer and fewer limits on how much solar can be realistically deployed. If the major forecasting agencies, as well as the IPCC, continue using outdated cost assumptions and forecasts for solar PV, it is the global climate system that risks paying the price.
